Country Selection Guide
The FY25 Food for Peace Notice of Funding Opportunity (USDA FAS, published May 13, 2026) selected seven priority countries — Democratic Republic of the Congo, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, Kenya, and Rwanda — as the empirical baseline for the program's first USDA-administered award cycle. USDA does not need a methodology to pick countries de novo; USDA has picked them. USDA needs the analytical infrastructure to (a) defend the seven selections under Congressional and OIG scrutiny against the NOFO's three statutory eligibility triggers, (b) operationalize the four-stage graduation pathway that NOFO Reform 3 commits the program to, and (c) provide a defensible ongoing-vet methodology for adjusting the country list at future NOFO cycles.
Why It Matters
NOFO Reform 3 commits USDA to "off-boarding and graduating projects, ensuring that Title II funding prioritizes emergency and in-need geographies rather than forever aid countries." That commitment is operationally meaningless without analytical infrastructure tracking each country's trajectory through emergency, sustained, recovery, and graduation stages. Without it, the forever-aid pattern persists. With it, USDA has the evidentiary case to defend continued programming or to graduate countries on a documented basis — at each subsequent NOFO cycle and in front of Congress.
Statutory & Regulatory Authority
The legal/regulatory instruments that bound this deliverable. HSG analysts cite these in every Section 4.1 deliverable submission.
FY25 Food for Peace NOFO §1.1 + §3 (USDA FAS, 5/13/2026)
Establishes the seven priority countries as the empirical baseline, the three statutory eligibility triggers (IPC Level 3, sudden-onset conditions, UNHCR declaration), and the three reform priorities including off-boarding and graduation under Reform 3.
P.L. 480 § 403 (Bellmon Amendment, 1977)
Statutory market-disruption screen; Enhanced Bellmon Tier 1 preserves this requirement unchanged. Runs first and binds first in any case of recipient-side risk.
7 USC § 1721 et seq. + 7 USC § 1722(a) (Eligible Applicants)
P.L. 480 authorizing statute and the FY25 NOFO eligibility-applicant authority.
Sphere Handbook 2018 standards
NOFO-mandated commodity-need quantification baseline (2,100 kcal/person/day with minimum required nutrients) — the cross-country normalization layer for the methodology.
Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) system (ipcinfo.org)
NOFO §3 eligibility-trigger anchor for Level 3 food insecurity ("At least 20 percent of households have significant food consumption gaps"). Non-discretionary classification source.
UNHCR emergency declarations (unhcr.org)
NOFO §3 eligibility-trigger anchor for crises exceeding existing local and international capacities. Non-discretionary classification source.
22 USC § 2151n
Limitations on assistance to countries with gross human rights violations — input to graduation-pathway stage classification.
Treasury OFAC sanctions designations (current)
Enhanced Bellmon Tier 3 strategic-alignment anchor — non-discretionary classification source.
DoD National Defense Strategy (current cycle)
Enhanced Bellmon Tier 3 strategic-competitor designations.
Operating Context
Anchored on the FY25 NOFO Reform 3 (off-boarding and graduating projects; no forever-aid countries) (Design Goal 3) and on the NOFO core function commitment to support American Farmers (Design Goal 4 — Country Selection incorporates U.S. agricultural production alignment as a primary dimension). The FY25 NOFO established the seven priority countries (DRC, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, Kenya, Rwanda) as a deliberate proof-of-concept tranche under USDA administration — a small initial cohort against which USDA tests the operating model before scaling. The methodology question USDA actually needs answered is therefore not "which countries should we pick?" but "how do we defend the seven we already picked, track them through the graduation pathway Reform 3 commits us to, and refresh the list at the next NOFO cycle?" The Enhanced Bellmon Framework supplies the analytical backbone: Tier 1 anchors entry-state classification against the NOFO's three eligibility triggers (IPC Level 3, sudden-onset conditions, UNHCR declaration); Tier 2 (commercial-displacement) and Tier 3 (strategic-alignment) overlays surface whether the case for programming continues to hold as conditions evolve. The Four-Stage Graduation Pathway — HSG's fifth named Enhanced Framework — operationalizes Reform 3: acute emergency entry, sustained-emergency continuation, recovery-and-stabilization transition, and graduation off Title II eligibility. Diana L. Caley, HSG's Senior M&E Advisor and Training Lead, authored the Food for Peace Emergency Indicator Handbook (199 indicators) from which the NOFO's nine standard performance indicators descend — the same indicators that supply the data substrate the graduation pathway runs on.
Inherited State — Quantitative Baseline
Real public-record figures HSG uses as the starting baseline for this deliverable. Every entry is sourced and dated.
| Baseline metric | Value | Source | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2024 Title II enacted appropriation | ≈ $1.75 B | USAID FFP / BHA Annual Report; Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2024 (P.L. 118-47, Div. F) | FY24 enacted |
| FY 2025 Title II enacted (continuing) | ≈ $1.75 B (CR posture) | Continuing Appropriations Act, FY 2025; subject to FY25 omnibus reconciliation | FY25 CR |
| Title II historical countries-of-operation | 32 countries (FY 2023 operational footprint) | USAID/BHA Food for Peace Annual Results Reports | FY23 close-out |
| Title II implementing-partner PVOs (active) | 18 awardees holding Title II Development Food Security Activities (DFSAs / RFSAs) | USAID/BHA award registry; USAspending.gov FAIN crosswalk | FY24 Q3 |
| Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust (BEHT) authorized ceiling | 1.4 million MT commodity-or-cash equivalent | 7 USC § 1736f; Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust Act of 1998 | Statutory |
| Cargo Preference Act minimum US-flag share | 50% by tonnage | 46 USC § 55305(b) (Food Security Act of 1985 amendment) | Statutory |
| FY 2024 US ag exports to top-10 Title II recipients | < 0.6% of total US ag exports | USDA FAS GATS; USDA ERS Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade (Feb 2025) | CY 2024 |
| Number of countries with active OFAC sanctions program | 38 sanctions programs covering 30+ jurisdictions | Treasury OFAC sanctions program list | Current |
| MNNA (Major Non-NATO Ally) designations | 19 designated | 22 USC § 2321k; State Department MNNA designations list | Current |
| Active US Free Trade Agreements | 14 FTAs covering 20 countries | USTR Free Trade Agreements registry | Current |
| USDA/State/OMB Interagency Agreement transferring FFP to USDA | Signed December 24, 2025 (FY25 + FY26 interim authority) | Devex; Kansas Farmers Union; USDA public communications | Dec 24, 2025 |
| FY 2025 unallocated FFP funds at IAA transfer | Approximately $500 million | Devex Dish coverage of IAA; FY 2025 appropriations data | Dec 2025 |
| FY 2026 FFP budget enacted | $1.2 billion (Nov 2025) | Congressional appropriations action November 2025 | FY26 enacted |
| USDA-WFP MOU announcement (first major USDA-led obligation) | $452 million for 211,000 MT US commodities to 7 countries (DRC, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, Kenya, Rwanda) | USDA FAS press release Feb 3, 2026; Under Secretary Luke Lindberg announcement | Feb 3, 2026 |
| USDA FAS Food for Peace NOFO (second tranche) | Published May 13, 2026; applications due June 12, 2026 5:00 PM EDT | USDA FAS NOFO announcement May 13, 2026 | May 13, 2026 |
| Named USDA principal — Under Secretary | Luke Lindberg (Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs) | USDA FAS leadership; Feb 3, 2026 press release | Current |
| Named USDA principal — Deputy Under Secretary | Michelle Bekkering (Deputy Under Secretary, Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs) | USDA FAS leadership; May 13, 2026 NOFO announcement | Current |
| Permanent-transfer legislation pending | H.R. 7567 (Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, 119th Congress) | House Agriculture Committee; Congress.gov | Current |
| USAID FFP/BHA staff at peak (FY2022-FY2024) | Approximately 1,000–1,300 worldwide (HQ Washington + 45+ countries) | CSIS 2025 humanitarian-capability retrospective; USAID/BHA self-reporting | Pre-2025 |
| Bellmon Estimation for Title II (BEST) analytical contractor | Fintrac, Inc. (program awarded August 2008) | USAID Bellmon Estimation for Title II (BEST) contract; USAID OIG performance audits FY2018-2020 | Aug 2008 – present |
Inherited Document Inventory
The specific documents USDA inherits from USAID/BHA on this scope. Each must be re-issued, modified, or sunset under USDA authority.
Statutory & Regulatory (Title II commodity rules)
These regulatory instruments govern commodity-donation decisions that flow downstream from country selection. USDA must determine which sections inherit unchanged, which require USDA-equivalent re-issuance, and which become moot.
22 CFR Part 211Transfer of Food Commodities for Food Use in Disaster Relief, Economic Development, and Other Assistance
Governs all Title II commodity donations; sections 211.3 (Programs), 211.5 (Distribution and Use), and 211.10 (Sale Proceeds / monetization) are directly invoked by country-selection decisions. USDA-equivalent rule required before FY27 operations.
22 CFR Part 226Administration of Assistance Awards to U.S. Non-Governmental Organizations
Pre-award eligibility and post-award compliance for PVO recipients in selected countries. 2 CFR Part 200 (Uniform Guidance) covers most subject matter; supplemental USDA guidance required for FFP-specific provisions.
22 CFR Part 228Rules on Source, Origin and Nationality for Commodities and Services Financed by USAID
Interacts with country-selection through Geographic Code 935 and waiver rules; transitions to FAR Part 25 + AGAR equivalents under USDA.
P.L. 480 § 403Bellmon Amendment — Market Disruption Screen
Statutory market-disruption screen — must run before any monetization decision for any selected country. Tier 1 of the Enhanced Bellmon Framework preserves this screen unchanged.
USAID Automated Directives System (ADS) — operational substrate
USAID ADS chapters are the operational handbook for FFP execution. Each must be inventoried and crosswalked to USDA-internal directive equivalents.
ADS 302Acquisition Planning
Pre-award acquisition planning for country-selected procurements; USDA AGAR equivalent.
ADS 303Grants and Cooperative Agreements to NGOs
Primary instrument for Title II DFSAs / RFSAs in selected countries; USDA Departmental Regulation series required.
ADS 304Selecting the Appropriate Acquisition or Assistance Instrument
Country-selection-adjacent — instrument choice flows from country posture.
ADS 312Eligibility of Commodities
Commodity-eligibility determinations per country/program — direct dependency on country selection methodology.
ADS 313Procurement Source/Origin
Geographic Code 935 rules — country-selection methodology must map to procurement-eligibility framework.
ADS 315Country and Geographic Codes
Country and geographic-area codes used in procurement decisions — direct linkage to country-selection lists.
ADS 317Acquisition and Assistance Risk Management
Pre-award risk framework — input to Enhanced Bellmon Tier 3 strategic-alignment overlay.
ADS 320Branding and Marking
Country-by-country branding decisions — links to Communications Strategy Guide.
Food for Peace Information Bulletins (FFPIBs) — country-selection relevance
FFPIBs are the de facto operating handbook accumulated since 2010. Listed bulletins below are those with material country-selection or prioritization content; full FFPIB inventory required.
FFPIB 13-03Bellmon Estimation Guidance (2013)
Direct Tier 1 methodology authority; Enhanced Bellmon Framework preserves and supplements.
FFPIB 14-01Refine and Implement (R&I) Guidance
Two-phase DFSA / RFSA design pattern — Phase-1 country-selection decisions trigger Phase-2 implementation.
FFPIB 16-02Country Specific Information
Country-by-country programmatic context — direct input to selection scorecard.
FFPIB 17-04Monetization Pricing Guidance
Country-selection downstream — monetization viability per selected market.
FFPIB 19-02Resilience Programming under FFP
Resilience-vs-emergency posture per country — selection-methodology input.
FFPIB 23-01Bellmon Estimation Update for Inflation
Methodology refresh; Enhanced Bellmon Tier 1 incorporates inflation-adjusted disincentive thresholds.
M&E Inheritance
USAID FFP Office Monitoring, Evaluation & Reporting Policy & Guidance V2.0 is the baseline USDA inherits; chapters listed are those with country-selection-decision linkage.
M&E V2.0 Pillar 1Strategic Frameworks
Country-by-country strategic framework — direct selection-methodology dependency.
M&E V2.0 Pillar 3Indicators
Selection-scorecard input variables (Need, Access, Host-Gov capacity) align to V2.0 indicator definitions.
M&E V2.0 Pillar 4Baseline / Endline / Mid-term Evaluations
Selection-decision validity tested against baseline; Phase-1 R&I baseline survey is the validation instrument.
Four-Phase Methodology
Phase 1 (Month 0–1) — NOFO Calibration
Activity: Calibrate Enhanced Bellmon Framework against the seven NOFO countries; document Tier 1 IPC Level 3 / UNHCR / sudden-onset entry-state classification for each; surface Tier 2 commercial-displacement and Tier 3 strategic-alignment profile per country
Output: Seven-country calibration brief
Phase 2 (Month 1) — Graduation Pathway
Activity: Build the four-stage graduation pathway framework; classify each of the seven NOFO countries to current pathway stage; document stage-transition criteria and supporting data sources (IPC refresh cadence, UNHCR tracking, recovery indicators)
Output: Graduation pathway v1 with seven-country baseline classification
Phase 3 (Month 1–2) — Model Build & Validation
Activity: Reproducible spreadsheet model build integrating NOFO eligibility triggers, Enhanced Bellmon Tier 1/2/3, graduation-pathway stage classification, Sphere commodity-need quantification, and contingency-reserve formula; senior bench review (Maurice / Kevin Latner / Kevin Sage-EL / Audrey); FAS Office of Global Analysis coordination
Output: Spreadsheet model v1
Phase 4 (Month 2) — Production
Activity: Final formatting; Congressional and OIG defensibility review; USDA staff onboarding materials including the ongoing-vet methodology for future NOFO cycles
Output: PWS Deliverable 6 (earliest substantive deliverable)
HSG's Approach
- 1Calibrate the HSG Enhanced Bellmon Framework against the seven NOFO countries — demonstrate that the framework defends USDA's stated selections (rather than proposing alternatives) and document the evidentiary case for each.
- 2Build the four-stage graduation pathway (acute emergency → sustained emergency → recovery and stabilization → graduation) as the structural framework for tracking each country's trajectory across the NOFO cycle and across future cycles.
- 3Anchor entry-state classification in the NOFO's three statutory eligibility triggers — Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) Level 3 food insecurity, sudden-onset deterioration from armed conflict or hazardous environmental events, or formal UNHCR emergency declaration.
- 4Integrate Sphere 2018 standards (2,100 kilocalories per person per day plus minimum required nutrients per the Sphere Handbook) as the cross-country commodity-need quantification baseline mandated by the NOFO.
- 5Develop the ongoing-vet methodology for adjusting the country list at future NOFO cycles — IPC data refresh cadence, UNHCR declaration tracking, graduation-pathway stage transitions, and re-entry criteria for countries that have previously graduated.
- 6Develop the contingency-reserve formula incorporating historical drawdown patterns, seasonal risk windows, and supply-chain lead times — explicitly more than financial inputs per PWS §3.4.
- 7Build the methodology as a reproducible spreadsheet model USDA FAS staff can audit, run, and update annually without contractor support. Working preview at ffp.housestrategiesgroup.com/demos.
Sample FrameworkReal Data
FY25 NOFO Seven-Country Calibration — Enhanced Bellmon Framework + Graduation Pathway (real data, CY 2026 baseline)
| Country | NOFO Entry-State Trigger | IPC P3+ Pop (M) | Tier 2 Commercial Displacement | Tier 3 Strategic Alignment | Graduation Pathway Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | IPC Level 3 (≥20% HH food consumption gap) + ongoing conflict | 25.8 | Low — limited commercial US ag presence; minimal third-country displacement | Neutral; UN MONUSCO peacekeeping context | Acute emergency (entry) |
| El Salvador | Sudden-onset deterioration (Northern Triangle migration nexus) | ≈ 0.9 | Low — small US ag market | Strategic partner (US migration cooperation framework) | Acute emergency (entry) |
| Ethiopia | IPC Level 3 + multi-region conflict (Tigray, Amhara, Oromia) | 10.8 | Moderate — US wheat / soybean displacement risk (AGOA suspended) | Strategic partner (AGOA suspended; Horn of Africa relevance) | Sustained emergency |
| Guatemala | Sudden-onset deterioration (Dry Corridor + Northern Triangle migration nexus) | ≈ 1.1 | Low — small US ag market; CAFTA-DR partner | FTA partner (CAFTA-DR) | Acute emergency (entry) |
| Haiti | IPC Level 3 + complex emergency (governance collapse + gang violence) | 5.0 | Low — small US ag market; treaty proximity | Treaty-proximity (CARICOM observer); Western Hemisphere priority | Sustained emergency |
| Kenya | Sudden-onset deterioration (Horn of Africa drought + refugee inflows) | ≈ 5.4 | Low — limited US ag commercial presence | Strategic partner (Major Non-NATO Ally; AGOA partner) | Recovery (with monitoring) |
| Rwanda | Sudden-onset deterioration (DRC spillover + refugee population) | ≈ 0.5 | Low — small US ag market | Strategic partner (AGOA; bilateral US engagement) | Recovery (with monitoring) |
Seven-country baseline drawn directly from FY25 NOFO §1.1 + §3 (USDA FAS, published 5/13/2026). IPC P3+ population from FEWS NET / IPC Acute Food Insecurity reports (latest CY 2025-26 cycles). Tier 2 commercial-displacement classification based on USDA FAS GATS bilateral trade data; Tier 3 strategic alignment anchored on Treasury OFAC, State FTA registry, and DoD designations as of CY 2026. Graduation-pathway stage classification reflects the HSG-recommended entry baseline; USDA will refine and validate during the engagement. Working interactive available at ffp.housestrategiesgroup.com/demos.
Performance Metrics
Seven-country NOFO calibration
Enhanced Bellmon Framework calibration documented for each of the seven FY25 NOFO countries with reproducible evidentiary case
Graduation pathway stage classification
Each country assigned to one of four stages with documented stage-transition criteria and underlying data sources
Reform 3 operationalization
Ongoing-vet methodology delivered allowing USDA to refresh the country list at the next NOFO cycle using transparent reproducible criteria
Sphere standards integration
Cross-country commodity-need quantification methodology uses the Sphere 2018 2,100 kcal/person/day baseline with demographic disaggregation
Annual-update capability
Spreadsheet model usable by USDA FAS staff without contractor support post-handover
Congressional defensibility
Methodology survives one full appropriations cycle of scrutiny
Risks & Mitigations
Risk
Political pressure to override methodology
HSG Mitigation
Anchor on transparent documented scoring; require written Contracting Officer justification for any deviation.
Risk
Strategic-classification disputes (Tier 3)
HSG Mitigation
Anchor on externally-documented Government designations only (OFAC, FTA partner list, DoD NDS) — no discretionary judgment.
Risk
Third-country exporter data quality (Tier 2)
HSG Mitigation
Primary sources: USDA FAS GATS, UN Comtrade; secondary cross-check via OECD trade-flow data.
Precedent Cases — Direct Execution History
Specific prior work by the HSG senior bench that is structurally analogous to this scope. Each is verifiable through the team member's documented federal employment history.
Maurice W. House — Deputy Administrator (75 analysts under supervision)
2008–2010
USDA FAS Office of Global Analysis (OGA)
Direct prior leadership of USDA's institutional commodity-and-geography prioritization function. Built the FAS analytical substrate that fed Departmental decision-making during the 2007–2009 global food-price crisis. Maurice carries the FAS-side methodology lineage that USDA now needs for FFP.
Maurice W. House — Co-chair, interagency global food-crisis task force
2007–2009
USDA / Interagency
Interagency methodology for crisis-period country prioritization — directly analogous to the contingency-reserve formula explicitly required by PWS Scope 3.4. Framework used by President / SecAg / NSC.
Kevin Latner — Executive Director
2011–2014
Cotton Council International (FAS MAP/FMD cooperator)
Three consecutive USDA FAS Unified Export Strategy (UES) submissions ($25M global program) — direct execution lane for country-and-market prioritization methodology under FAS cooperator-program framework. Methodology is structurally adjacent to the FFP country-selection problem.
Kevin Latner — Senior Agricultural Attaché responsibilities + Food for Progress monetization market-assessment
2015–2019
USDA FAS (Foreign Service Officer, China posting)
Food for Progress is the USDA sister-program to FFP and is subject to Bellmon-equivalent market-assessment requirements. Kevin's direct execution provides the FAS-side analog to USAID's Bellmon Analysis methodology — central to Enhanced Bellmon Tier 1 implementation.
Maurice W. House — Agricultural Attaché — first US wheat export to Taliban-led Afghanistan
1995–1998
USDA FAS (Foreign Service Officer, Islamabad)
Country-selection methodology applied under the most extreme operating-environment scenario the PWS contemplates (PWS 3.3 Non-Traditional Operating Environments). Country was selected against a backdrop of zero standard diligence availability — proof of execution under exactly the conditions FFP-country selection will face.
Audrey McGuire (Emax Inc.) — CEO; HUD Office of Asset Sales Project Financial Advisor (continuous since 1999)
1999–present
Emax Inc.
27 years of federal portfolio-allocation discipline under HUD OAS as Project Financial Advisor on >$7B cumulative loan-sale volume. Translates capital-markets portfolio-construction methodology into the country-selection allocation problem: weighted-factor scoring, scenario stress testing, performance attribution back to selection-decision inputs.
Audrey McGuire — Senior investment-banking analyst → CEO
1989–present
Wall Street → Emax (founding partner)
B.S.F.S. International Economics, Georgetown School of Foreign Service. Provides the bilateral co-investment readiness scoring sub-methodology — translating the State Department's America First Global Health Strategy 31-MOU template ($20.6B program value, 38% recipient counterpart share) into country-by-country readiness signals.
Live Data Sources HSG Will Query
The real public-record data feeds HSG analysts will pull from during this engagement.
| Source | Access | Use Case |
|---|---|---|
| USDA FAS Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) | apps.fas.usda.gov/gats — public, free; HS-10 commodity granularity | Tier 2 commercial-displacement modeling: bilateral US export flows to candidate countries; identification of top commercial exporters per recipient market. |
| UN Comtrade | comtradeplus.un.org — public, free, UN/DESA-maintained | Tier 2 cross-validation for third-country commercial-displacement: independent of USDA FAS to avoid single-source bias. |
| USAID/BHA Food for Peace Annual Results Report | usaid.gov/food-aid (historical archive); subject to USDA inheritance posture | Title II historical obligation, partner, and country footprint baseline. |
| USAspending.gov FAIN-level disbursements | usaspending.gov — public, federal-mandate transparency under DATA Act | Audited dollar-level obligation data per country/per partner/per fiscal year — replaces estimates with authoritative figures. |
| FEWS NET / IPC Acute Food Insecurity reports | fews.net; ipcinfo.org — public, semi-annual updates | Tier 1 Need indicator: IPC Phase 3+ population estimates with quarterly refresh. |
| Treasury OFAC sanctions program list | treasury.gov/ofac — public, official | Tier 3 strategic-alignment anchor: sanctioned-jurisdiction classification (non-discretionary). |
| USTR Free Trade Agreement registry | ustr.gov/trade-agreements — public, official | Tier 3 FTA-partner classification: USMCA, KORUS, CAFTA-DR, etc. |
| DoD National Defense Strategy + posture statements | defense.gov — public; current cycle published | Tier 3 strategic-competitor designations: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. |
| State Department MNNA & treaty-ally registry | state.gov — public | Tier 3 treaty-ally classification: NATO (32 members), MNNA (19 designations), mutual-defense partners. |
| World Bank WDI; IMF WEO | data.worldbank.org; imf.org/weo — public | Macroeconomic context: GDP per capita, food-import dependency, currency-reserve adequacy for bilateral co-investment readiness. |
| World Food Programme HungerMap LIVE | hungermap.wfp.org — public, near-real-time | Need indicator cross-validation against IPC; sub-national heat-map disaggregation where IPC is country-level. |
Expected Deliverables
- Country Selection Guide (PWS Deliverable 6) — month 2 (earliest substantive deliverable)
- Enhanced Bellmon Framework calibration documented against the seven FY25 NOFO countries (DRC, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, Kenya, Rwanda)
- Four-stage graduation pathway tracking framework — acute / sustained / recovery / graduation
- Ongoing-vet methodology for adjusting the country list at future NOFO cycles
- Sphere-aligned commodity-need quantification methodology (2,100 kcal/person/day baseline with disaggregation by demographic group)
- Contingency-reserve formula with documented inputs beyond financial dimensions
- Reproducible spreadsheet model for annual USDA-staff update
Expected Outcome
USDA can defend the FY25 NOFO seven-country selection under Congressional and OIG scrutiny, document the graduation-pathway stage for each country, demonstrate Reform 3's off-boarding-and-graduation commitment is operationally executable, and refresh the country list at future NOFO cycles using a transparent, reproducible methodology USDA staff can run without contractor support.
References
- USDA FAS Office of Global Analysis (OGA) methodology archive
- Bellmon Estimation for Title II — Methodology Guide (USAID 2009 revision)
- USDA FAS Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS)
- UN Comtrade
- State Department America First Global Health Strategy (March 2026)
- Working preview: ffp.housestrategiesgroup.com/demos (Framework 01 + 04)